Analysis of the impact of oil and tax revenues on public revenues in Iraq for the period 2003-2018

Abstract

This study aims to measure the change impact in oil revenues and tax revenues and its impact on public revenues in Iraq for the period 2003-2018, The standard model was build and use the statistical methods to identify the nature of relationship and the effect of independent variables on the dependent variable, by using the multiple linear regression equation and by last squares method, OLS ,and  it was found that the oil revenues play an important role to from the public revenues, and through, the gradient slope parameter ,reached to  value equal to 0.99 as well as its contribution as  a percentage in public revenues, while its a  exceeded as average for the study 96%, while the Tax revenues contributions percentage as average is 3.6%, and through the(cointegration) procedure, according to Johansen's test, it was found that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between public revenues and oil revenues, and the study recommended the need to work on activating taxes as one of the sources of public revenue and reducing the phenomenon of tax evasion, as well as Reducing dependence on oil revenues, as they are characterized by instability and fluctuations in the direction of prices and quantities .